By where the day closed, an opening range breakout is close to a coin flip with a small lean. Just over half of the breaks above the first 30-minute high were still above it at the close.
Some breaks failed all the way. On 13.3% of upside breaks, the day closed below the range's low.
Breaks to the downside held a little less often than breaks to the upside.
SPY chops through both sides far more than the single stocks. It broke both ends of its opening range on 46.7% of sessions.
What to do with it
Some breaks ran a long way. On 15.9% of upside breaks the day closed more than a full range above the high.
The usual way to trade the break is with a stop back inside the range, and a close back inside is common. It happened on 32.7% of upside breaks.
This counts closes, not stops, so it can't tell you whether your version of the trade makes money. Decide what ends the idea, write it down, and backtest it on a few hundred breaks before you trade it.
An example day
SPY on October 5, 2026 broke its first 30-minute high on the 10:00 AM candle and closed above it.
The low side never broke that day. Play it from the open in Market Replay and see if you'd have stayed in after the first pullback.
| Breaks of the high | Closed above it | Closed back inside | Closed below the low | Breaks of the low | Closed below it | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All seven | 3,903 | 54.0% | 32.7% | 13.3% | 3,802 | 48.2% |
| SPY | 664 | 55.4% | 24.1% | 20.5% | 622 | 48.4% |
| QQQ | 616 | 58.1% | 26.1% | 15.7% | 582 | 47.4% |
| IWM | 549 | 51.9% | 33.3% | 14.8% | 585 | 52.0% |
| Apple | 526 | 51.1% | 37.5% | 11.4% | 488 | 45.3% |
| Microsoft | 520 | 52.7% | 37.1% | 10.2% | 502 | 46.4% |
| Meta | 511 | 53.6% | 37.4% | 9.0% | 515 | 48.9% |
| Nvidia | 517 | 54.0% | 37.3% | 8.7% | 508 | 48.6% |
How we counted
Regular-hours 5-minute bars for SPY, QQQ, IWM, Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Nvidia from March 2023 to October 2026, half days left out. The opening range is the high and low from the open to 10:00 AM. A break is any later candle trading past it, counted once per side per day, and the result is where the session closed. That isn't a trade with a stop and a target, so read it as how often the move lasted, not as a win rate. Prices are TraderPier's own trade data, as traded and not adjusted.
Questions
What is the opening range breakout success rate?
Counting where the day closed, 54.0% of breaks above the range held. That's a count of closes, not a win rate with a stop.
Do downside breaks work as well as upside breaks?
A little less often. Breaks below the range closed below it 48.2% of the time.
How often does the opening range never break?
Rarely. Neither side broke on 3.0% of sessions.