All strategies on SPY
| Strategy | Net result | Just holding | Trades | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Cross | +27.9% | +46.9% | 1 | Too few closed trades (1) to tell. That takes at least 30. |
| RSI(2) pullback | +25.3% | +46.9% | 30 | The average trade made +0.76% over 30 trades, more than luck usually gives. See the SPY results |
| MACD crossover | +16.4% | +46.9% | 27 | Too few closed trades (27) to tell. That takes at least 30. |
| Bollinger Band breakout | +4.0% | +46.9% | 10 | Too few trades (10) to tell. That takes at least 30. |
| Opening range breakout | +8.1% | +46.4% | 628 | The average trade made +0.01% over 628 trades. Luck could explain that. See the SPY results |
| First 5-minute candle breakout | -1.7% | +46.4% | 631 | The average trade made -0.002% over 631 trades. Luck could explain that. See the SPY results |
| Gap fill fade | +0.2% | +46.4% | 303 | The average trade made +0.003% over 303 trades. Luck could explain that. See the SPY results |
The rows are in the same order on every stock, and they are not ranked.
How we tested
We ran each strategy on SPY from Mar 26, 2024 to Sep 30, 2026 with the textbook rules. $10,000, all in on every trade, no margin. Commission is $0.005 a share and slippage is a cent a share, on every fill. Just holding is the stock's price only, with no dividends, and a position still open on the last day is counted at that day's close.
Questions
Can I test these on SPY myself?
Yes. Open a strategy's results page and press "Try it yourself" to load it in the Backtest tab. Without a paid plan you can reach less history than we used, and your numbers can differ.
Why doesn't every strategy have its own page?
The tester needs at least thirty trades before it will tell a result from luck. A strategy with fewer gets a row in the table and no page of its own.