Every December somebody posts that the Santa Claus rally is coming. The idea is that stocks rise over the last five trading days of the year and the first two of January. Yale Hirsch named it in the Stock Trader's Almanac.
We counted those seven trading days on SPY, QQQ and IWM in the three Decembers our data covers.
In 2023, SPY was higher through the end of December, then fell in the first two days of January and finished the window down 0.83%.
In 2024, SPY jumped on the first day, was lower by the end of December and made some of it back in January. It finished down 0.49%.
In 2025, SPY was up on the first day, down by the end of December and back to about even in January. It finished down 0.03%.
QQQ ended lower every year too. IWM, the small-company fund, was down the first year and up the last two.
What to do with it
If you're thinking about holding a position into the new year for the rally, replay the same days from earlier years in Market Replay and see what your position would have done. Or write the rule as a strategy and run it in the backtester on any stock you trade.
An example day
SPY on December 27, 2024 was the third day of the window. It closed at $595.01, down from the day before.
Play it from the open in Market Replay and see what you'd have done.
| Symbol | Dec 2023 to Jan 2024 | Dec 2024 to Jan 2025 | Dec 2025 to Jan 2026 | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | -0.83% | -0.49% | -0.03% | -0.45% |
| QQQ | -2.32% | -0.83% | -0.67% | -1.27% |
| IWM | -2.80% | +1.40% | +0.27% | -0.37% |
How we counted
Daily closes for SPY, QQQ and IWM from March 2023 to October 2026, built from TraderPier's own trade data. The close is the last regular-hours trade of the day, so it can differ a little from the official closing price. The window is the last five trading days of December and the first two of January, and a half day counts as a trading day. A season's return runs from the close before the window opens to the close of the second January trading day. Prices are as traded, not adjusted for dividends.
Questions
When is the Santa Claus rally?
The last five trading days of December and the first two of January.
Does the Santa Claus rally happen every year?
Not in our data. SPY ended the window lower in every year since March 2023.
Did the Santa Claus rally work for QQQ and IWM?
QQQ ended the window lower every year too. IWM fell in the first year and rose in the last two.
Does this mean the Santa Claus rally is dead?
No. Our data starts in March 2023, so it covers three Decembers, and the rally was first described on much longer histories. This page only tests the years we have.