Nvidia fills its gaps more often than the index ETFs, but still less than half the time.
Small Nvidia gaps are the exception. Gaps of 0.5% to 1% filled the same day 68.4% of the time.
Nvidia also gaps big more often than any of the other six. It had 156 gaps of 2% or more.
Bigger Nvidia gaps filled less often. Gaps of 1% to 2% filled 43.1% of the time.
Share of gaps of 0.5% or more back at the prior close, by time of day, March 2023 to October 2026
| Time | Share of gaps of 0.5% or more back at the prior close, by time of day |
|---|---|
| 9:30 AM | 0.0% |
| 10:00 AM | 25.9% |
| 10:30 AM | 31.6% |
| 11:00 AM | 36.6% |
| 11:30 AM | 38.8% |
| 12:00 PM | 39.9% |
| 12:30 PM | 40.7% |
| 1:00 PM | 42.0% |
| 1:30 PM | 43.0% |
| 2:00 PM | 43.8% |
| 2:30 PM | 44.6% |
| 3:00 PM | 45.2% |
| 3:30 PM | 45.7% |
| 4:00 PM | 47.3% |
What to do with it
If you fade a Nvidia gap, plan for it not to fill. Take profit before the prior close, or size the trade so a day that never gets there is an ordinary loss.
A Nvidia gap still open at noon is very likely to stay open. Only 12.2% of them filled in the afternoon.
An example day
Nvidia on October 6, 2026 was the rare kind. It opened 1.3% above the prior close and was still open at noon.
It filled on the 3:40 PM candle. Play it from the open in Market Replay and see whether you'd have held a fade that long.
| Nvidia gap size | Gaps | Filled by 10:30 AM | Filled by noon | Filled by the close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5% to 1% | 215 | 52.6% | 62.8% | 68.4% |
| 1% to 2% | 255 | 27.1% | 33.3% | 43.1% |
| 2% or more | 156 | 10.3% | 19.2% | 25.0% |
| 0.5% or more | 626 | 31.6% | 39.9% | 47.3% |
How we counted
Regular-hours 5-minute bars for SPY, QQQ, IWM, Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Nvidia from March 2023 to October 2026, half days left out. The gap is the first trade of the session against the prior session's last trade, and it counts as filled when price traded back to that prior close in the same session. A gap that filled on a later day counts as not filled here. Prices are TraderPier's own trade data, as traded and not adjusted, and Nvidia's June 2024 split day is left out. These are seven large names that mostly rose over this stretch, so smaller stocks may behave differently.
Questions
Does Nvidia always fill its gap?
No. Of Nvidia gaps of 0.5% or more, 52.7% never got back to the prior close the same day.
How often does Nvidia fill its gap in the first hour?
Nvidia gaps of 0.5% or more filled in the first hour 31.6% of the time.
Does this count gaps that fill days later?
No. Only the same session counts, so a gap that filled the next week shows up here as not filled.