The first candle of the day is almost always bigger than anything you'll see at lunch. The same stop in points risks far more at the open than it does midday.
On 100 Apple shares with the stop at the other end of the first candle, the median risk was $140.00.
The same stop on a midday candle was $27.75.
The index ETFs show it least. SPY's first candle was the closest to its midday size of the seven, and the table below has the rest.
What to do with it
Size the first trade of the day for the first candle, not for the candles you'll see at lunch. If your share size is set for midday moves, cut it at the open or wait for the candles to calm down.
An example day
Apple on October 6, 2026 was a typical day. Its first candle was 5.7 times the size of its midday candle.
Play the open in Market Replay, put your usual stop on it, and see how fast the first candle gets there.
| First candle, % of price | Midday candle, % of price | First candle bigger | First candle, 100 shares | Midday candle, 100 shares | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 0.16% | 0.07% | 97.3% | $87.00 | $37.38 |
| QQQ | 0.27% | 0.09% | 99.4% | $129.00 | $43.50 |
| IWM | 0.37% | 0.10% | 100.0% | $83.00 | $22.00 |
| Apple | 0.64% | 0.12% | 100.0% | $140.00 | $27.75 |
| Microsoft | 0.60% | 0.12% | 100.0% | $250.00 | $48.00 |
| Meta | 0.86% | 0.16% | 100.0% | $454.00 | $84.00 |
| Nvidia | 0.98% | 0.22% | 100.0% | $200.00 | $44.50 |
How we counted
Regular-hours 5-minute bars for SPY, QQQ, IWM, Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Nvidia from March 2023 to October 2026, half days left out. The first candle is the one that opens at 9:30 AM, and the midday candle is the median candle from half past eleven to two o'clock on the same day. Dollar risk is the candle's high-to-low range on 100 shares at the price of the day, and Nvidia traded about ten times higher before its June 2024 split, which is why the table shows dollars per symbol. Prices are TraderPier's own trade data, as traded and not adjusted.
Questions
How big is the first 5-minute candle on SPY?
On the median session it was 0.16% of SPY's price from high to low.
Is the first 5-minute candle always the biggest of the day?
Nearly always bigger than a midday candle. It was the bigger one on 99.5% of sessions.
Does premarket count?
No. Only regular hours count, so the first candle is the one at the open.