A lot of day traders build the morning around the first 5-minute candle. They buy a break of its high with a stop under its low, or wait to see which side gives first. How often that candle really holds one end of the day depends on what you trade.
Single stocks held it far more often than the index ETFs, on about half their sessions each. The chart above has every symbol.
On SPY the first candle usually gets run through on both sides. Price went past its high and its low later in the day on 75.1% of SPY sessions.
Give it the whole first half hour and it goes the other way. One end of the day was already in on 71.7% of sessions.
What to do with it
A stop just under SPY's first candle usually gets hit. Price traded below that low later in the day on 86.7% of sessions.
The low of the whole first half hour holds better, but it still breaks on most days.
Decide before the open whether that low is where your idea is wrong or just the nearest line on the chart, and size the trade for the stop you actually use.
An example day
SPY on October 5, 2026 was one of the days the first candle held. The low came in that first candle and price never went back under it. The high came at 3:15 PM.
Play it from the open in Market Replay with the rest of the day hidden and see if you'd have trusted that low at the time.
| Sessions | High or low in the first candle | High in it | Low in it | Traded under the first candle later | Traded under the first 30 minutes later | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All seven | 6,146 | 42.4% | 21.1% | 21.4% | 78.6% | 61.9% |
| SPY | 878 | 24.9% | 11.6% | 13.3% | 86.7% | 70.8% |
| QQQ | 878 | 31.7% | 15.5% | 16.2% | 83.8% | 66.3% |
| IWM | 878 | 39.2% | 21.2% | 18.0% | 82.0% | 66.6% |
| Apple | 878 | 51.5% | 25.4% | 26.3% | 73.7% | 55.6% |
| Microsoft | 878 | 51.1% | 25.2% | 26.2% | 73.8% | 57.2% |
| Meta | 878 | 50.1% | 24.9% | 25.2% | 74.8% | 58.7% |
| Nvidia | 878 | 48.4% | 23.7% | 24.7% | 75.3% | 57.9% |
How we counted
Regular-hours 5-minute bars for SPY, QQQ, IWM, Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Nvidia from March 2023 to October 2026, half days left out. A day counts when its high or low is in the opening candle, and a later tie still goes to the opening candle. Prices are TraderPier's own trade data, as traded and not adjusted. These are seven large names that mostly rose over this stretch, so smaller stocks may behave differently.
Questions
How often does SPY make its high or low in the first 5 minutes?
On 24.9% of sessions from March 2023 to October 2026.
Is the high or low of the day usually set in the first 30 minutes?
More often than not. One end of the day was in by the end of the first half hour on 71.7% of sessions.
Do single stocks hold the first candle more often than SPY?
In this data, yes. Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Nvidia each held it on about half their sessions. SPY held it on 24.9%.
Does premarket count?
No. Only regular hours count, so a premarket high or low isn't part of it.